Tuesday 29 August 2017

Iraqi Kurdish Referenda influences Greater Kurdistan, inadvertently, mobilises Turkey to fight US in Syria. By Tim Tufuga

On September 25, 2017, the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan is set to hold an important referenda to vote for the independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan from Iraq.
Google
Google

More significantly, as a consequence of this recognition of an Independent Sovereign State of Kurdistan, will be the residualised influence for an eventual expansion of Iraqi Kurdistan to include South East Turkey and North West Iran as part of the ancient Greater Kurdistan nation.
In view of the potential success of the referenda in Iraq, the eventual path for a Iraqi Kurdistan nation, which will then simply be known as Kurdistan, will undoubtedly have an obvious perceived threat to neighbouring Turkey, and Iran, whose Kurdish populations are considered an even more imminent threat to Turkey and Iran than the cursory Islamic State Caliphate.

Understandably then, regardless of the outcome of the Referenda result, Turkey and Iran, have already gone to great lengths to forgo their traditional religious sectarian ill will, ie, Iranian Shi'ism, and Turkey's Sunni Islamic influence, in conducting joint political and allegedly joint military campaigns in having to deal with the Kurdish issue.

As it may seem obvious, the post-ISIS conflict will, inadvertantly, morph into a war between Kurdish self determination forces headed by the Peshmerga, and the Syrian Democratic Front made up almost entirely with Syrian Kurds in the Peoples Protection Unit (YPG). In many respects, the Kurdish conflict may be considered as separate civil wars within the respective nation states of Turkey, Syria and Iran as a consequence of the successful outcome of the September 25th, 2017, Iraqi Kurdish referenda yes vote for their Independence from Iraq.
Meanhile, by late August and in September, 2017, the Turkish Army have mobilised rapidly south of their border in a confluence campaign with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF). The SDF is a rebranding of the Syrian Kurdish militia also known as the Peoples Protection Unit or the YPG and, most importantly, the SDF is with the official Operation Inherent Resolve support by the US military, in an official Boots on the ground, involvement, in Syria.

SDF (YPG No longer considered a terrorist organisation by US renamed SDF)
On August 29th, 2017, the most significant development in the war against IS has been the schism from within the Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) joint command with other NATO members, with regards to Turkey's involvement. Turkey is the nearest NATO member to the actual Syrian conflict. NATO's involvement in the conflict is through Operation Inherent Resolve in having to deal with Islamic State (IS).

What seemed to be a united force amongst NATO members to repel IS has, instead, turned against themselves. Turkey's military (Operation Euphrates Sword) is now in a direct firefight with the US military (SDF) in Syria.

Turkey's involvement in the conflict, initially with Operation Euphrates Shield, has now been renamed Op. Euphrates Sword. Operation Euphrates Sword had initially allowed for the Turkish forces to commit to NATO's Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) by sweeping southward from the Turkish border, and, to work toegther with the Syrian forces heading due North and West, the SDF and SAA would eventually sweep norwest, towards Deir Ez Zor, in a pincer operation, to nullify once and for all IS.

Unfortunately, for Turkish unique operational campaign, whilst the primary objective was IS, the secondary, was Tanzim Qa'edat Al-Jihad fi Bilad Al-Sham" or Al Qaeda within the Levant. Paradoxically, the Al Qaeda of the Levant are also fighting IS. The third objective in the Turkish operation whilst considered less important for now, is perhaps, considered the more important and visceral issue for the Turkish nation, dealing with the Kurdish insurgency.

The Peoples Protection Unit, or YPG, has been considered as a terrorist organisation by NATO and especially by Turkey. With a name change to SDF, the US military have felt less compelled to consider the YPG as a terrorist organisation and have instead joined forces with the SDF. The SDF is not a terrorist organisation according to the US military and therefore the US military will join forces with the Kurds moreso than with the SAA and much less with the Al Qaeda Syrian branch, now known as the Tanzim Qaeda Al-Jihad Fi Bilad Al-Sham. (Or the Al Qaeda in the Levant)

The so called friendly fire has come to a head this week with the an actual direct firefight between the Turkish military and the SDF which has led to an even more significant direct firefight between the US and Turkish forces within Syria. The contact may seem insignificant if it were not for the imporant fact is that Turkey is still a NATO member and this is the first ever incident of one NATO member has fired upon another NATO member in anger. Consequently, with the SDF clashing with the Turkish Army, America and Turkey, are now in direct conflict.

Changing geo-political dynamics.

Whilst the war against IS may seem to be winding down certain geo-political dynamics have fundamentally changed in recent months.

When, at the start of the year, it may seem that Turkey and Russia were about to engage in a direct confrontation after the shooting down of a Russian jet and more significantly with the assassination of the Russian Ambassador by an IS sympathiser. Instead, the recent incursion into Syria by the Turkish military through Operation Euphrates Shield, last year, and, now renamed Operation Euphrates Sword, since August 2017, has led to an accidental, and, now, an ongoing firefight, between the US military, how have now joined with the Kurds, within the SDF, as well as, having to face off with the residual remnants of the eschatologically prone IS. A lesser concern for the Turkish military is the Al Qaeda of the Levant who have been considered as a contingent concern for the time being.

Overall, as far as the Turkish political and military agenda is concerned, the problem of IS may be pale in comparison with an even greater probable conflict between Turkey and the Kurds not only within their own borders but also with the Syrian Kurds backed up by the Iraqi Kurds (Peshmerga) together with a significant US military presence within the SDF (YPG and US) which has become a double whammy for the Turks having to face their traditional enemy the Kurds and now an even more frightening prospect of having to face their most powerful NATO Ally the USA.

The September 25th Referenda, therefore, will either add impetus to the Greater Kurdistan political strategic objective of the regional Kurds, spearheaded by the Iraqi Peshmerga, the Turkish military's Operation Euphrates Sword may be considered much more than merely the extermination IS in killing two birds with one stone scenario. The Americans will now be having a diplomatic military alliance nightmare of having to deal with Erdogan and his Armed forces and the survivability of NATO or the demise of Erdogan himself as a consequence of Operation Euphrate Sword.

Tim Tufuga
30th August, 2017
.


Source:
1. Southfront.Org https://southfront.org/us-soldiers-engage-turkish-backed-militants-in-firefight-in-northern-syira/ 29th August, 2017
2.Radio Free Europe, https://www.rferl.org/a/turkey-iran-joint-operation-kurdistan-workers-party-denials/28691051.html 22nd August, 2017
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017

Wednesday 16 August 2017

The Moral Equivalence at street level. The rise of Militant Black Christians in America.




Perhaps, the moral equivalence, middle ground held by the current POTUS, may have been received well by David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan and the not so reticent, White Supremacist movement, not only within America, but, throughout Europe and Oceania, what has emerged from this drawing a line on the sand divided America, is a counter-movement, such as the 2013 Black Lives Matter movement.


Symbols of American cultural history since the American Civil War, have been removed after recent race riots.
(ABC News USA)

Since 2013, after a spike in fatal shootings of Black men by law enforcement officers, and, more significantly, with the mass shooting of nine Christian Afro-American church members in Charleston, South Carolina, in June 17, 2015, a number of nascent Black militant Christians have emerged.(1)

A nascent Christianised version of the CRIPS and BLOODS Afro-American Hoodlum gangs have gathered influence.
One such group SICARII has become a unique Militant Afro-American Christian gang. The group would face off with Polynesians, Afro-American Muslims, and White Supremacists.

A uniquely, Afro-American Hebrew Christian gang.

The Sicarii has become a very popular hip hop blend of Jewish Black Christians.
At the heart of the Black Hebrew Christian belief is rendering an eschatological war by the Jews (Black Jews) against the Edomites. The Edomites are the descendants of Esau.

Genesis 36:9.(2) Edomites are the descendants of Esau. Malachi 1: 2-3.(3)

Edomites are interpreted as Caucasions.

The rest, they consider as Kushites (Polynesians, and Muslims, etc) (symbolically, an ethnic group within middle Egypt in the old testament (Torah) times)

Tim Tufuga
16th August, 2017.

source:

1. BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33179019, 18th June, 2015.

2. Bible: Genesis 36: 9

3. Bible: Malachi 1: 2-3


Monday 7 August 2017

The Australian $1.6 trillion National Security Materiel Procurement 2017-2030. By Tim Tufuga

The expected expenditure of the Australian military materiel Procurement will be $1.6 Trillion dollars. (Cost of Australian National Security)

More of the latest acquisitions for the Australian Defence Force from the Australian Military Materiel Procurement schedule. With a projected $89 Billion for the next 30 years on Naval materiel procurement. (1) The breakdown of the materiel procurement will be focused primarily on replacement vessels for Submarines; Offshore Patrol Vessels (to be replaced with Offshore Combat vessels, most likely designed as minature versions of the littoral ships); (2) Frigates (most likely British Type 26 BAE systems Global Combat ships); and the new Air Warfare Destroyers (AWD) three in all.

The 12 new Barracuda Shortfin Submarines at a cost of $50 Billion. (3)


Easily the most expensive procurement behind the replacement of the ANZAC Class and Adelaide Class Frigates, 11 in total, with the expected British Type 26 Global Combat Ship, at a cost of $35 Billion for 9 Frigates to be built in Adelaide from 2020 onwards.
And, the Air Warfare Destroyers, Hobart Class Destroyers, HMAS Hobart, HMAS Brisbane and HMAS Sydney. ($8 Billion for three Destroyers) (4)


And, twelve (12) new Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) ( or Offshore Combat vessels) at a cost of $3 Billion. (5)


And, the controversial procurement of the Royal Australian Air Force's Joint Strike Fighter 35, Lightening II, 72 confirmed RAAF aircrafts will be delivered to Australia in early 2018. The cost is $17 Billion.


In the National Security surveillance procurement, perhaps the most significant materiel acquisition would undoubtedly be the seven (7) MQ 4C Triton Unmanned Aerial Surveillance Vehicles. For longer range, higher altitude surveillance.

For the Hawks of Australia, we have thought very well and thoroughly on our National Security, even if we don't mind bragging a bit about it.
National Security, yes, in Australia, is worth $1.6 trillion dollars.

Timoteo Tufuga

Source:

1. Pyne, (Hon) C, Australian Government, https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/christopher-pyne/media-releases/local-industry-focus-offshore-patrol-vessel-project

2. Planned Australian Offshore Combat Vessels, Wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Australian_offshore_combatant_vessel

3. Craw, V, Barracuda submarines, http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/design/australias-12-new-shortfin-barracuda-submarines-described-as-most-lethal-weapon-the-nation-has/news-story/a1f423bd9b30aef5259da42ba87cf503

4. Hobart Class Destroyers, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobart-class_destroyer

5. Australian Government press release, http://www.defence.gov.au/casg/EquippingDefence/SEA1180PH1_OffshorePatrolVessels

6. Royal Australian Air Force, https://www.airforce.gov.au/Technology/Aircraft/MQ-4C-Triton-Unmanned-Aircraft-System/?RAAF-BYjCaU6eHptQ3E2EiHw9jKOLJvauES8Y

Tuesday 4 July 2017

The Samoan Constitution a colonial legacy to degrade the Samoan Nation.



The two most salient points has arisen with the appointment process of the Samoan Head of State. Firstly, as a legacy of the New Zealand and British Colonial tutelage is the Samoan Constitution which has inadvertently degraded into commonplace the former dyarchical arrangements of the Sa Tupua and the Sa Malietoa royal lineages. Insodoing, the dilution of the royal titles into Royal Highness contesting for the Samoan Head of State renders the dyarchical arrangements meaningless and commonplace. For instance, the Mataafa title is in fact a Malietoa by extension and simply because a descendant of the Sa Pouesi Maota has become a Mataafa simply has splintered the Malietoa royal family to a Pouesi branch within a stand alone Mataafa title. One may argue then, that the Mataafa and most of the past nineteenth century military commanders of the respective Samoan tribal armies are simply Generals of their respective armies and have subsequently become elevated into amalgamated chieftainship subsequently. Needless to say, the Samoan constitution is in essence a parting legacy by the New Zealand government to the Samoan Nation in that it has bequethed a polity devoid of royal families, (apart from a highly contestable papa titles) but a legacy of contestable rival aristocratic class who will forever bicker and fight and will forever become divided and conquered. The Tongan example has also been a product of British and New Zealand intrique and behavioural engineering. The Tongans have a uncontestable Royal family, which was created by the British, more specifically the Weslyan Church Missionaries. The Weslyans were the Kingmakers. Samoa being arrogant refused to consolidate this system and subsequently feuded amongst themselves much to the delight of the British and New Zealanders who in turn detested the Samoans by denying them a military branch and by incorporating a constitution in which Samoans will never have a royal monarch forever. Secondly, it is the ultimate cutting the head of the snake scenario for a race. Here is the relevant Samoan constitutional clause with reference to the Samoan head of state
PART III
THE HEAD OF STATE
16. O le Ao o le Malo - There shall be a Head of State of Samoa to be known as O le Ao
o le Malo.
17. Repealed by clause (5)
Article 17 ceased to be in force on the death of Malietoa Tanumafili II on the 11th
day of May 2007 pursuant to clause (5).
18. Election of Head of State - (1) The Head of State shall be elected by the Legislative
Assembly under the provisions of the First Schedule.
(2) A person shall not be qualified to be elected to the office of Head of State:
(a) If he is not a person qualified to be elected as a Member of Parliament; or
(b) If he does not possess such other qualifications as the Legislative Assembly may
determine from time to time by resolution; or
(c) If he has previously been removed from the office of Head of State under the
provisions of clause (2) of Article 21.
(3) The validity of the election of the Head of State shall not be contested in any Court.
19. Term of office of Head of State - (1) Subject to the provisions of Articles 17 and 21,
the Head of State shall hold office for a term of 5 years from the date on which he
assumes the functions of his office:
PROVIDED THAT, notwithstanding the expiry of his term, he shall continue to hold
office until his successor assumes the functions of his office or for a period of 3 months,
whichever is the shorter period.
(2) Subject to the provisions of this Constitution, a person who holds, or who has held,
office as Head of State, shall be eligible for re-election to that office.
(3) An election to fill a vacancy in the office of Head of State caused by the death,
resignation or removal of the Head of State or by the expiry of the term of his office shall
be held under the provisions of the First Schedule, and, subject to the provisions of this
Constitution, the person elected to that office shall hold office for a term of 5 years from
the date on which he assumes the functions of his office.

Source:
Radio New Zealand, http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/334479/new-head-of-state-for-samoa

Thursday 8 June 2017

USA: Comey calls Trump’s requests on Russia investigations ‘very disturb...



An unprecedented public hearing of a Senate Select Committee investigating the Russian link in the 2016 United States Presidential election.

In what could be the most momentous unprecedented event, not only is an impeachment process is formulated against the present United States President. An implication against the 45th United States President, will not only mean an impeachment, but, more seriously still, is the charge of espionage which will carry an even more serious indictment against the POTUS which means, if proven without any reasonable doubt, will result in a federal offence, for spying, which is a mandatory federal imprisonment offence.

Within six months of the present POTUS he has left a whirlwind impact upon the world. A very powerful influence which may, in many respects, be considered as unbridled hegemonic power by a seemingly unfettered POTUS tour de force,

Sunday 4 June 2017

London terrorism leading up to the British election during the Muslim month of Ramadan. By Tim Tufuga

(BBC)
With the British general election this week coinciding with the Muslim Ramadan holy month, it would not surprise political strategists to contrive an ultra reactionary propaganda strategy heading into the election.

The loser are the minorities and a tolerant multicultural society. The catalyst for this hatred unfortunately is indeed the Islamic religion and the segregationalism with a cultural caliphate culture which is not integrative but segregationalist at best and violently intrusive
This act of terrorism has only gave the reactionary political parties, the just cause for steering an election vote towards the ultra reactionary victory. The reactionary vote within the British Labour Party and the traditional Conservative parties may argue their own versions for a xenophobic Britain.

Islamic Jihadism has only succeeded in serving the political ultra right wing to defeat multiculturalism. Enoch Powell's foreboding warning of the river Tiber awash with the blood of racial hatred has been justified with the acts of terrorism by instruments of hatred by both the ultra right political parties and extremist religious terrorists. The winner in this age of global terrorism is the ultra rightwing xenophobic political parties.

By Tim Tufuga

Source:

BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40148737

ninmsn.com, http://www.9news.com.au/world/2017/06/04/07/30/vehicle-ploughs-into-people-on-london-bridge-reports

Friday 2 June 2017

President Trump pulls out of the Paris Global Warming Accord. By Tim B Tufuga

When the Hegemon decides to turn the Global Warming Weltgeist on its head and leaving the Global Warming science to simply being a groupthink fiasco. The global community will continue without the Hegemon like an organism without a head. It will continue to function but without the most powerful nation in the mix, the global community will falter and the world will truly realise how a non-American participation will be likened to a global organisation functioning without a head. It will work still but people will look askance at America for some support. (google search)


As a political Hegemon President Trump has truly shown his true grit by not being a follower in a crowd. He hasn't lost fans in this non-Statesmanlike foray in global politics, in fact, quite on the contrary, the President has gained support from an ochlocratic base from the hoi polloi who has welcomed true leadership from an American President who leads from the front and would not kowtow to a global weltgeist even if science, media and world entertainment, like a Roland Emmerich natural disaster movie can hope to influence the hearts and minds of the world. From this point alone, I too have warmed up to Trump's international arrogance from this standpoint.

As for his domestic troubles, well, this will only add fuel to the fire. His volatility at such a short period of his presidency has been frenetic and this President is certainly a President like no other. He has been a unique manifestation of America that a spaghetti westerns would only emulate as an all conquering American gunslinger getting down and dirty at high noon against all challengers. Yes, this includes each respective world leader across the way.

By Tim Brian Tufuga


Source:

Shear, M, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html?smid=fb-share, 2nd June, 2017.

Monday 8 May 2017

The Venezuelan Oil crisis, from the Bolivarian Missions, to PVDSA demurrage, to a Maduro dictatorship. By Tim Tufuga

The Venezuelan crisis has come to a peak with the deaths of many anti-government protesters in Caracas, Venezuela, in the past week, or so. Whilst, blame may be directly pointed at the Nicolas Madura government,(1) the simmering crisis had long ago germinated from the over reliance upon the one commodity economy of Venezuela which is oil.

The obvious myriad of causes maybe many and varied, but, for all intents and purposes of this blog, the significant influencing factor for why the Venezuelan crisis is what it is at the moment is blamed indirectly, at least, to oil. Venezuelan economic fortunes has been determined almost entirely upon the buoyancy of the oil industry and its continual largesse redistributed throughout the nation.

Bolivarian Missions.(2)

Added to the one commodity economy of Venezuela is the lack of domestic macroeconomic, and microeconomic, wherewithal, in the maintaning and sustaining the augmented programs of the seemingly altruistic Chavezist Socialist Utopian program, as realised through the Bolivarian missions. The maintenance of the Chavez social reforms agenda had been dismissively as ideologically utopian with only a short term benefit at best. The Venezuelan masses, in which the programs were meant to invigorate social reforms and to elevate the masses from poverty, had relied almost entirely upon the re-distributional largesse from the oil profits by the State owned Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A (PDVSA),(3) or The Petroleum of Venezuela. With an estimated asset value of $231.1 Billion (2013) the PDVSA has become the piggy bank of the State in drawing on infrastructural socio-economic development for the Venezuelan nation. This largesse was considered more of a hand out, rather than a hand up, in terms of actual community development, of social-economic development, educational, health, housing and infrastructural improvements, culminating in business investment stimulation. The Bolivarian missions in the very short time they were initiated became a Socialist Utopian Overreach. The Superstructural ideal could not be articulated pragmatically within the operational and implementation stage at the grass roots, infrastructural and logistical, level of Venezuelan society. The overarching praxis problem with the implementation of such a grandiose vision was simply in the scope and reach, it was by far too complicated, and too sophisticated, of a program, to be implemented competently, and completely, within a very short period of time. One can not implement drastic social changes within one generation. The Bolivarian Missions with all its grand design would only succeed through a gradual process which requires time and a cultural immersion which is intergenerational and requires a solid funding from government. Government in turn had relied on a singular source, Oil, from PVDSA. Herein, lies the rub of the Venezuelan problem.


(Hugo Chavez) (wikipedia.com)

In recent events, impacting Oil producers particularly from the Middle East region, has presented to the world the fragility of energy security which would impact directly upon National Security matters directly. Perhaps, the most significant impact upon National Security as far as the Western World attention is concerned would be impacted by the felling of the World Trade Centre by two hijacked commercial airplanes on September 11, 2001. The world realised how oil producing regions in exotic distant cultures whose cultural values differed remarkably from Western values would adversely affect cultural sensitivities. In this narrative, Islamic Jihadism had challenged the Occidental world directly for their purported negative impact upon their cultural values inadvertently through the purported exploitative impact of exploitative extraction of conventional oil reserves from their soils. A focus on energy security has become a primary focus for National Security for the world and oil was the primary commodity for certain nations and cultures were able to hold the world to ransom.

The oil price re-set since 2008.(4)

The price of oil had plummeted from its peak at $147 per barrel, back in July 11, 2008, to falling below $30, by February, 2016.

The futures market has determined the bear market influence upon the price of oil. In doing so, it has served a two fold purpose, firstly, to allow for the conventional oil producers such as OPEC member nations, to divest futures market speculators from investing in tight oil producers, like America. A timely divestment in American tight oil will, after an initial peak period of tight oil mass production, and with the global price of oil dramatically plummeting and would plateau in both domestic production and global export of tight oil, especially American tight oil production, within a decade or so. Also, as a psychological warfare political strategy by OPEC and in particular Middle Eastern Islamic cultures, is the desired adverse effects, and affects, of tight oil investment as an microeconomic White Elephant within the American socio-economic and political landscape at domestic level. Once again, as a National Security perspective, oil is the overarching weapon of choice by anti-Occidental elements.

Venezuela, is a member of the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC), 65% of Venezuelan oil is exported to the United States of America. Under the Hugo Chavez socialist government the re-nationalisation of the Venezuelan oil industry back in 1976, the PDVSA had reaped immediate short term benefit for the populist needs of the masses. The social welfare programs such as the Bolivarian missions would serve to realise the egalitarian social justice ideal of the Chavezism. The PDVSA was tapped into time and time again as the State's Piggy Bank in providing for these egalitarian programs.

However, the intricacies on international economic foreign trade, and oil is a primary commodity understood by all nations, is one commodity in which an autarky Socialist government can not hope to survive in without interacting with the free market system. The export of oil, as a commodity, for the economic development, wealth generation, maintenance, sustainability and the survival of a nation. The problem then with Chavezism was the singularly over reliance upon oil for everything for wealth generation and the re-distribution of that wealth altruistically without reinvesting into augmented economic stimuli or at least, to assuage a Occidental world of the egalitarianism of Chavezism. A formula, in which Chavez and his successor, Nicolas Madura would inherit. A Socialist Chavez Autarky would suffer the isolationism from even the cooperation from Venezuelan customers for PDVSA supplied oil. PDVSA was unable to afford to even clean up their own vessels in basic operational systemic failures. To add further angst, PDVSA was unable to hasten demurrage port charges in order for the customer to receive their Venezuelan supplied oil, simply because the Venzuelan government could not afford immediate payments. It was a catch 22 situation, much to the chagrine of a very unpopular Madura government.

(US Energy Information Administration) (5)

Therefore, at present, the depreciation of the global oil price, is considered a preemptive measure by the OPEC member futures investors, sourced no doubt by OPEC member nations, in anticipation for futures market divestment in tight oil. The formulae seemed to be a simple equation, an average cost of conventional oil production is relatively half that of the cost of tight oil production (Shale Oil).

Whilst Saudi Arabia may have welcomed the immediate bear market impact upon the oil market, as a counter measure to American tight oil production. The rippling effect and affect with the short term downturn would undermine the fledgling tight oil producers, primarily the Americans within the oil market. (6)

The psychological warfare of energy security would be fought out in the stock market and in particular within the futures market with oil price speculation led to the reset of the oil price in which, simply put, would simply fall well below the production cost for a barrel of tight oil.

In prolonging this suppression of oil price, it would eventually lead to a breaking point for the producers of tight oil, and, in particular, to adversely impact upon the United States of America, which, at present, has been confirmed as having the world's largest reserves of tight oil (Shale oil) in the world.

The real impact of the psychological warfare on energy security, and, inadvertently, upon the National Security strategies of nations?

The tight oil phenomena, despite the dismissive gestures from OPEC members, has a rippling influence upon oil dependent economies. Venezuela, obviously, has revealed its true economic fragility with having to rely almost completely upon oil and subsequently upon the speculative trends of the futures market.

(wikipedia.com)

In conclusion.

Oil has become a significant raison d'état for wanting to ensure Energy security for nations. Venezuela is a highly valued oil supplier for the Americans and a Socialist government whilst it may serve an egalitarian ideological agenda for a just society, may, in turn, create economic and political ideological rifts. A government which lacks the wherewithal with not only with the provision of egalitarian social justice reforms for the entire population, but, to be able to have an efficacious rapport with your trading partners as well. Such a significant lesson of not biting the hand that feeds you may bode well for the Venezuelan Socialist government when dealing with their purported Capitalist customers. The oil PVDSA owned and leased oil cargo tankers, for example, have been prevented from docking and offloading their precious cargo in ports throughout America and Europe, which have to do with strict environmental impact quarantine procedures. The crude oil leaks and environmental health and safety impact failures have delayed cargo ships from docking and offloading. The delays, in docking, in turn, have resulted in demurrage penalties which the PDVSA and the Venezuelan government can not afford to pay.(7) The precious cargo is stranded offshore and the PDVSA are left broke and bankrupt unable to pay for their vessels to port. The ripple effect is obvious. The depreciation in the price of oil, the inability to export oil to customers, and the country in economic crisis has adversely affected the Chavez legacy which has been bequeathed to the Madura administration, in 2017.

The culmination of these contingent causal effects have brought us to the present crisis in Venezuela.

Tim Tufuga




1. Nicolas Madura elections, CBC.Ca, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-elections-suspended-1.4036425

2. Bolivarian Missions, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivarian_missions

3. The PDVSA, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDVSA

4. The price of oil, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil

5. American tight oil, Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29932#

6. American shale oil versus conventional oil, investopedia.com, http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/051215/cost-shale-oil-versus-conventional-oil.asp

7. Banned at Sea , Parraga, M and Guanipa M, http://www.businessinsider.com/r-banned-at-sea-venezuelas-crude-stained-oil-tankers-2017-4/?r=AU&IR=T, April 18, 2017.



Thursday 6 April 2017

United States declares war on the Assad Syrian Regime.

America has officially been at peace since the end of Operation Enduring Freedom back in 2010. President Barack Obama's administration had delivered in his promise to end the war in the Middle East and to recall the troops.

On the 6th April, 2017, (1) the President Trump has been in power for less than three months and has already returned the American military machine back into Defcon 5(2) with imminent direct contact with not only the Assad Military machine but more importantly a proxy conflict with Russia.
(Al Jazeera)

The Cassus Belli for this mobilisation and Tomahawk missile strike upon strategic and tactical military and infrastructural targets within Syria has resulted from the purported Sarin Nerve agent chemical bombing of Idlib, Syria on the 5th April, 2017 (3).

Geo-politically, the Levant region has been engage in direct conflict for most of the post-2010 de-militarisation of the United States of America war machine. The burden of conducting yet another Middle Eastern conflict for the American nation will undoubtedly fall upon the American people and America's immediate military allies.

Strategically, from an American perspective, the inclusion of the American involvement within the Syrian sectarian conflict, unlike the Afghanistan and Iraqi conflicts, is the most important variable, the Syrian conflict will now expand the Levant conflict towards a direct confrontation between the most prominent hard powers of Russia and the United States of America.

From a Assad and sectarian domestic perspective, the American involvement in the Syrian conflict may influence the local Syrian and the collective Arab and Islamic resentment of the American Devil and the Zionist enemy due South West coming into direct conflict and in thus the Shia and Hezbollah may find a change of focus by the sectarian conflict with the Sunni, and to re-focus the Syrians in a new common enemy and to re-engage the Syrian Nationalism fervour by the Syrian Nation having to engage the traditional enemy directly.

Syrian nationalism may disengage the domestic sectarian conflict and to re-engage the Syrians on the Golan Heights, and again with Israel and America collectively in a more visceral Islamic Jihad.

Conversely, in the meantime, the United States Strategists, may, in turn, view the opportune moment to purge the Shia minority stranglehold upon the Syrian power elites, via the Shia Alawites, and diffused outwardly to the Sunni majority of the Syrian population. The back to square one of the crux of the Syrian conflict has been focused upon the Syrian sectarian power base which had been hitherto been focused upon the Shia, Alawite, minority who have shored up all the centralised power of the Syrian social and political elite. The Syrian population is predominately Sunni and the primary focus of the military strikes within Syria has been on Sunni dominated areas of the Syrian geo-political and sectarian demography.

The fork in the road for the Syrian conflict is how will the American and Russian role in this conflict will pan out.

One the one hand, the Sunni may sleep with the Devil and enjoin the Americans and Syrian Rebels in ousting the Assad regime outright and in the process to realise the Islamic State grand desire in the long run which is to purge the Levant of the Shia outright.

Alternately, and second, the Syrian Sunni may enjoin the Shia regime and enjoin a Syrian Nationalism movement in purging the traditional enemy of the Israelis and the Americans. In which case, the Assad regime may be viewed as the xenophobic Martyr as a Syrian Nationalist. This perspective will venerate the Assad regime as the defender of the Syrian Nation.

Thirdly, the Assad regime may be toppled and in place a Sunni dominated regime be inserted that will be anti-Iran and more reticent towards Kurdish secessionism.

Finally, the Islamic State may lose their domestic source of recruitment with many Sunni enjoining the Syrian Sunni Rebels, in purging the Alawaite, Shia regime, the Hezbollah, and the Iranian military and material logistical support, in the overall ideological and strategic Sunni Caliphate in the Levant region.

In turn, the Kurdish question as the third factor in the current paroxysms within the Levant may be considered a root probable cause for the domestic troubles which had been simmmering since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. The ultimate wicked problem of the Kurdish self determination has been put in the too hard basket for the present moment. Ultimately, the Kurdish Nationalism question will rear its head again long after the demise of the Assad regime.

The main influencing factor in this conflict is President Putin and the ball is now on his court.

In the meantime, with the imminent Russian contact, this may be considered as being more likely, more so than the Cuban crisis in 1963.

The cordial relationship between President Putin and President Trump will be tested. Paradoxically, the Putin regime had supported President Trump's election victory almost directly due to President Trump's foreign policy announcement prior to the 2016 Presidential election.

In April, 2017. things have changed and over 50 tomahawk missiles landing of various Syrian targets is a testament of the fluidity of foreign policy in a realpolitical world order whereby ideological mainstay are not as concrete as a black and white, good and bad, dichotomous world view.

By Tim Tufuga


Source:


1. Al Jazeera, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/us-missiles-syria-170407013424492.html, 6th April, 2017.

2. Defcon, http://defconwarningsystem.com/2017/04/07/syria-event/, April, 6th, 2017.

3. BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39500947, April, 6th, 2017.

Sunday 19 March 2017

The Turkish Constitutional Referendum the harbinger for Pan-Turkish Ottomanism and anti-Laicism. By Tim Tufuga


The nation of Turkey will be having a very important constitutional referendum scheduled for the 16th April, 2017. The Turkish Constitutional referendum will restructure the very fabric of the Turkish political system with the abolition of the office of the Prime Minister and the increase of the executive Presidential powers which would also include the extension of the tenure of office for an elected government. Electoral reforms would increase the four year tenure to five years. The Turkish parliamentary membership will increase from the present 550 to 600, although, the executive will be tightened to a Presidential inner circle which will also curtail the military judicial influence from the executive.

The Turkish government's incumbency of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, from the Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, (AK Party, or The Justice and Development Party), has been in power for 11 years. The Justice and Development party is considered politically as a pro-Islamic right wing conservative political government which has veered Turkey away from its post 1918 Kemalism (or Ataturkism) and Laicism secularism stance which has been embraced by the Western nations since the end of hostilities in the Great War of 1918 ushering the Ataturkism period of a post Ottoman Empire Turkish political and social culture, that was until the 2002 election, when, paradoxically, the Turkish pro-Islamic political wave swept aside the hitherto, Kemalism and Laicism of post World War One Turkey. In 2002, whilst the world was entering a new era of global terrorism since September 11, 2001, in Turkey, somewhat against the grain, Turkish democracy moved more to the Islamic rightwing and away from the Secularism of the Kemalism and Ataturkism era of over a century of Turkish political history. Erdogan, therefore, was to become the harbinger for an anti-Kemalism executive government structure, which was resisted not by the people, but, paradoxically, by the military themselves, with what would be considered as a failed coup attempt in 2016.

Militarily, the coup was overthrown by the people, politically, however, the seemingly glass house political structure of the present Turkish government was measured by a seemingly ineffectual executive political structure as demonstrably challenged by the recent 2016 attempted coup by some dissdent rank and file within the Turkish Military. In light of this political inefficiency and ineffectiveness, it would be considered pragmatic for a decisive executive structure to articulate down the vertical political process in a control and command process so as to minimise these political inefficiencies. Interpretively, therefore, it was considered important, to have a stronger executive presidency in which emergency powers may not need parliamentary accountability, which may be considered too time consuming and inefficient, particularly in a politically tenuous and fragile environment where the threat variable for the National Security for Turkey is at its highest level. In order to consolidate a fragile power base, it was necessarily to overhaul the political foundations from its very root, through the Constitution itself.

The Constitutional Referendum would be necessary to cement a destabilising political system a contagion being spread from the Middle Eastern Arab Spring virus threatening to infect Turkey from both within its National sovereign borders, its immediate neighbours, and rippling outwardly to include Europe and further. In the immediate outcome of the constitutional referendum, there will be a significant cultural impact upon the Turkish cultural landscape and one in which will be marked as the Erdogan era which will replace the hitherto Kemal Ataturk legacy, which was noted with Laicism and a democratic parliamentary republic process that was palatable to the Occidental world. The Parliamentary Republic of Turkey will be physically increased numerically, but, and the abolition of the office of the Prime Minister (as a member of the cabinet, and, therefore, as a member of the Executive), in actuality, institutional political power, however, for the Turkish National General Assembly (Parliament), will be significantly reduced, when a constitutional restructure will create a more powerful Executive Presidential system within the Turkish political structure. In short, the Presidential powers of the Turkish Devlet Baskani (President), will be increased at the expense of parliamentary accountability.

The ultimate outcome of the 2017 Constitutional Referendum, if the yes vote is successful, will see the Turkish military branch severely punished with limited political influence; and that, the Turkish Parliamentary Republic, whilst it will increase from the current number of 550, to 600, will, at the same time, limit the executive (cabinet) size, and scope, with the abolition of the office of the Prime Minister. The power vested by the Executive President, after the Constitutional Referendum will significantly be increased, which at present will mean that the office of Presidency will rest with the current President, whom has been noted as a pro-Muslim Brotherhood supporter, and, therefore, is an outright pro-Sunni Islamic President whom is anti laicism and anti-Kemalism.

At the hustings

The domestic campaign

The background for the Yes vote, for increasing the Executive Presidency within the Constitutional referendum, has been tempered with a firm pro-Sunni pan-Turkish fervour, as a direct reaction to the 2016 attempted coup, which was a domestic implosion stemming from two significant domestic crisis points, First, the over the border Syrian crisis, and, more directly,the subsequent influx of Syrian refugees, in the millions, attempting to migrate towards Europe, via, Turkey; and, since the collapse of the Ottoman empire, with the perpetual sore, since 1918, with the Kurdish Separatists, and Kurdish Nationalists, which has led to domestic violence, and, in a very likely direct conflict between the PKK, YPG, and inadvertently, an imminent clash with the Peshmerga (Kurdish forces).

Externalised from the immediate domestic crisis for the Turkish government, is the over the border military and political geo-political and geo-military confrontations, that would involve direct NATO and Russian confrontations, as a member of NATO, Turkey is the only NATO member nation which has had direct military contact with the Russian military with 24th November, 2015, shootdown of a Russian SU-24, by a Turkish F16. The Russian Turkish adverse relationship was further exacerbated with the Russian's ambassador to Turkey, His Excellency Andrei Karlov's assassination in late 2016, by a purportedly pro-Aleppo and therefore an IS sympathiser Assassin assigned as the Russian's Ambassador's personal protection security detail.

The Russians Syrian crisis campaign has been a line in the sand moment for Turkish-Russian relations, which has been on breaking point with the Russian foreign policy stance of supporting the Assad regime which is a pro-Shia Syrian Government platform, which has seen in Turkey an outright anti-Russian attitude, by the Turkish military and a pro-Sunni Erdogan administration. Although, in saying this Sunni leaning Islamic governmental stance by the Turkish government, the Erdogan administration has vehemently distanced themselves from the Imam Bagdadi's led Daesh, or Islamic State, although, the IS have declared themselves as a Sunni Caliphate, and, that the Turkish government has listed the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) as a Terrorist Organisation, the pro-Hezbollah, pro-Alawite, and, therefore, pro-Shia Syrian Assad regime, has been considered as the lesser of the two evils by the Russians. This foreign policy stance by the Russians according to Erdogan's AK government, as a line in the sand, in which has been crossed over by the Russians. and one in which will see an irreconciliable difference in foreign policy objectives by Turkey and Russia.

Oversea's campaign for the Turkish Constitutional Referendum.

The pan-Turkmanism was the global diaspora of the Turkman and to shore up domestic ascent the Turkish expatriate Turkmen citizenry with enfranchisement rights is still considered a significant voter group. The Constitutional Referendum for both the Yes and No campaign were in the hustings throughout Europe in order to shore up expatriate support for either the yes or no vote.

A mea Culpa for Pan Turkish Ottomanism.

On March 11, 2017, the Turkish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, was attempting to initiate a pro-yes rally campaign in Rotterdam, Netherlands, but, was prevented from entering the country for previous political comments made by the Minister, with regards to the alleged mistreatment of Turkish emigres as a non-EU and non-Schengen Aquis member within Europe, whose citizens continue to have settlement difficulties within the Netherlands. The Turkish Minister was forced detour his pro-yes campaign efforts to France instead.

Meanwhile, the Turkish admission into the European Union membership status has had a slight obstacle by way of the Erdogan anti-Laicism and pro-Islamic administration. The Islamic nation within NATO has also meant that differences of opinion will arise from time to time and certainly with the present Erdogan administration the NATO chain of command within the Turkish military circles has presented its own domestic unrest which has culminated with the 2016 coup attempt. What has started as a preventative measure by European nations of potential domestic divisions amongst the Turkish communities within Europe over the oncoming Constitutional Referendum may spark a Nationalism rally by the pan-Turkish movement globally in shoring support for ex-patriates against their respective European host nations anti-Turkish xenophobia. Perhaps, a period has arisen whereby the Turkish people within Europe may feel the chagrine ire of xenophobic Europeans of their Islamic culture and perhaps significantly, a mea culpa political crisis that will strain the multiculturalism harmonious homeostasis which has allowed for the international inclusion of many cultures and nationalities to freely move, integrate, and cooperate economically, culturally, and politically unrestrained by xenophobic resentment and presenting a security threat to their fellow citizenry.

With the banning of the Turkish Foreign Minister from the Netherlands, and the subsequent indignant reaction from Turkey's conservative government and most significantly by the Turkish people, globally, the supporters for Erdogan and the his blend of pan-Turkmanship patriotism and chauvinism has tempered a nascent revision of Kemalism politics, and, a reversion to Ottomanism and the granduer of the Ottoman Empire by the Turkmen being revisited by the current Erdogan administration.

The outcome of the April 16th, 2017, Constitutional Referendum, will confirm the present attitude of the Turkish people. If it is yes, then the nascent rise of the Ottomanism and pan Islamism of the Erdogan era has arisen to its zenith and the Kemal Ataturk Laicism and particurly for the ANZACs, in that the memory of the post-Gallipoli era will be undone.

History will recall the outcome of the April 16th, 2017, Turkey Constitutional Referendum event, as a focal point in the demise of the Laicism and the return of pan-Turkish Ottomanism or the retention of the status quo, of Parliamentary Republicanism, and the continuation of Kemal Ataturk Laicism?

By Tim Tufuga

20th March, 2017

Source:

1. Turkish Minister for Foreign Affairs, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mevl%C3%BCt_%C3%87avu%C5%9Fo%C4%9Flu

2. Turkish Constitutional Referendum, 2017, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017

3. Turkish Coup, 2016, wikipedia.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_d'%C3%A9tat_attempt

4. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan

5. Kemalism, wkipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemalism

6. Turkey's downing of Russian plane, BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581, 1st December, 2015

7. Andrei Karlov's assassination, news.com.au, http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/russian-ambassador-to-ankara-gunned-down-during-art-gallery-visit/news-story/8678761871fa963d07d62ca83dc8caf8, 20 December, 2016.

8. Tensions rise in Europe, telegraph.com.uk, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/erdogan-calls-turkish-families-have-five-children-bulwark-against/, 17th March, 2017.




Sunday 12 March 2017

1830 Samoa: As a fifth great grandson of Malietoa Talavou Tonumaipe'a this is part of my story. Tim Tufuga

As confusing as it my seem, the microcosmic world of the Samoan political cosmos seems to be a microcosmic geo-political colonial history unfolding in a rapid, and seemingly inchoate history. One in which, it would have a direct impact upon the domestic political power struggles of the localised Chieftains.

From my personal note, it has a direct link with my personal life. In short, I am the fifth great grandson of Malietoa Talavou Tonumaipe'a, from the consummation from his second marriage.

My ancestral lineage is traced directly to Malietoa Talavou's second wife's descendants, mai le Maota o Pouesi, mai Sapapali'i, within Apia village ushering the Sa Tuiletufuga agnation line, which is directly linked to my late mother's father's heritage, Sa Tuiletufuga family of Apia.

As for the Tufuga side, this is the high chiefly title of Asau, Savai'i and are traditionally aligned with the Tupua line, which is a Ali'i title name in Asau and their fa'alupega. The current Samoan head of State is also a holder of the Tupua royal title.




Source:

wikipedia.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malietoa_Talavou_Tonumaipe%E2%80%99a

Monday 20 February 2017

President Trump's direct approach to China may elevate DEFCON readiness: The USS Carl Vinson and the CSG1 sails in the Chinese claimed territory.

(wikipedia) 1

As the Trump administration approaches the second month in office, the global media attention have been focused on apparent over one hour long scathing media conference on fake news by the President of the United States, resulting in a reciprocated global media cringe with the POTUS media relationship. Needless to say, that there is mere thought the Trump presidential impact upon American domestic and international policy has been incrementally transitional has been very far from the reality. Living up to erratic expectations of a seemingly unpredictable Presidential election result culminating in a shoot straight from the hip twitter presidency which has not only promised to make America great again, but, to directly put into action these lofty promises by flexing this American military greatness throughout the world, and with these grandiose visions of greatness the Trump administration would tread onto places where no other President fear to tread.3

The Trump presidential administration in military foreign policy with regards with their relationship with China may be considered a fullhardy direct approach in foreign policymaking, which has now manifestedly become either a Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson caution, followed by an actioned mea culpa, which may, inadvertently, initiate a cassus belli conflict between the United States and China.4 Or, conversely, with a show of Trump machismo greatness, concluding with an eventual back down by the Chinese PLAN, and, an eventual phase down of Chinese activity, and presence, within the Nansha, or the Sprately, group of Islands within the South China Sea. More likely though, with this high noon showdown with the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), a direct military confrontation seems imminent with the arrival, within the South China Sea, of the United States Navy's Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG1) headed by the US Aircraft Carrier USS Carl Vinson. A game of Chicken, and military brinkmanship, between, and undoubtedly, the two most powerful military superpowers in the world are about to face head to head within the first hundred days of the Trump Presidential administration. If China backs down then, obviously with a a National loss of face to China, this would overtly reveal to the world the true Trump machismo greatness throughout the world. More than likely, National pride by a military Superpower like China will almost certainly lead to a direct imminent confrontation with CSG1. Insodoing, America may be prepared for an elevated DEFCON readiness. An elevation from Defcon five, to a double take and if contact is made, to Roundhouse alert.5

Within two months in office, the newly elected President of the United States (POTUS) has transitioned America from a hegemonic upholder of the status quo and homeostasis and as a conscientious King Solomon Hegemonic leader to being an unilateral direct interceder of global disputes. The American gunfighter has strode into this Ok Corral for their high noon appointment with the toughest and meanest baddass in town.

(wikipedia.com)

Tim Tufuga
21st February, 2017.

Source:

1. ABC Australia, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-19/us-carrier-group-patrols-in-south-china-sea/8284224, 19th February, 2017.

2. Defencetalk.com, http://www.defencetalk.com/carrier-strike-group-1-conducts-south-china-sea-patrol-69189/, 20th February, 2017.

3. ABC Australia, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-25/china-tells-trump-to-stay-out-of-south-china-sea-dispute/8212246, 27th January, 2017.

4. Washington Post, Denya, S, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/24/is-trump-ready-for-war-in-the-south-china-sea-or-is-his-team-just-not-being-clear/?utm_term=.b14d6910c329, 24th January, 2017.

5. DEFCON, Wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON

Sunday 19 February 2017

2016 The most fatal year in suicide terrorism



A re-cap on 2016, and the increase level of suicide bombings has resulted in five and a half thousand casualties in 2016 from suicide bombing. Most killings are overwhelmingly in Iraq, and over 70% are attributed to the Islamic State.

The global Jihad violence has become the harbinger for the rise of the reactionary right throughout the globe and now, at the lead of this nascent 'direct' and 'aggressive' approach is the, hitherto, one month tenure of the Trump administration.

The subliminal global Jihadist terrorism has replaced the traditional twentieth century terrorist narratives, and, in particular, since the post-World War Two era, the terrorist violence narrative that was often ideologically associated with a global Communist and Capitalist schism, which was geo-spatial in its scope, as noted by Central American Communist insurgencies; Indo-China and South East Asian post colonial ructions; and the continuous revolutions and anarchy in within the African continent. Meanwhile, as a direct consequence of the de-colonisation period, the Middle Eastern conflicts focused, primarily on the newly created Jewish State of Israel which, still continues its struggle to reconcile their existence and forcing out the Palestinians who have lived in Palestine for over two thousand years since the Jewish Diaspora, which was in itself a consequence of an imperial Roman invasion which had raised Jerusalem to the ground two thousand years hence.

Meanwhile, since September 11, 2001, the world has accepted the most ominous threat to the Occidental way of life is the spread of the Islamic faith and most ominously along with it is the associated violence in which we are all too familiar with today.

In a world which see's a clear conflict of culture, traditions and ideology, it seems overwhelming, that the present clash of cultures and religion has ushered in a world of paranoia, mistrust and the desire for xenophobic segregationalism.

With the conflicts of religion and cultures has borne from it the bigotry of cultural and racial intolerance. Anti-multiculturalism with the tower of Babel narrative from the architects from the Ultra Right, has severed the global heterogeneity of internationalism and a global Utopia ideal. The harbinger of the ultra right xenophobia may be credited directly, in the twentieth century, to the Islamic Jihadist terrorists, particularly since 911.

The Donald Trump's, the Le Pen's, the Pauline Hanson's, and the achitects of Brexit and other Autarky regimes in the making of this world, may thank the Islamic Jihadists for elevating them into power, directly.

Tim Tufuga
20th February, 2017.

Wednesday 8 February 2017

The Trump immigration policy the most salient counter terrorism initiative.

I had arrived back into Australia over the weekend after spending some time in the Mid West of the United States with my wife. During my visit, the Trump administration had been in office for less than a week and in that time an Executive Order was initiated for the United States immigration policy known as the Executive Order: Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States.

"Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1101 et seq., and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, and to protect the American people from terrorist attacks by foreign nationals admitted to the United States." 1

Whilst, I had glanced up at the welcome to the United States sign with a picture of the United States President Barack Obama still smiling invitingly down at me at the escalator, I was processed and had my Australian passport stamped along with my Transportation Security Authority (TSA) approval, with minimal delay. I soon realised that the regime change would come into effect on the Friday and as an Australian I would not be affected.

Whilst in Indianapolis, news reports of a distraught Iranian brother of a man whom had been refused entry into the United States was broadcasted across the television, which was due, directly, to the recent Presidential Executive Order abovementioned. Another story, of a Syrian traveler's story, soon the negative story of the US government ban seemed to continue the negative international reputation of the newly inaugurated Presidential administration straight off the bat.

However, in a immigration reciprocity perspective, of the seven countries in which the United States government has recently imposed immigration entry restrictions into the United States, the seven restricted nations of Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Somalia,Sudan and Libya, have imposed immigration bans on Israeli citizens and passport holders.2

The United States government response is considered in a reciprocated light when reciprocation of Nationals like the Israeli citizens and passport holders from some sixteen countries throughout the world, including the seven countries that are presently considered affected by the recent POTUS immigration policy executive order ban aforementioned.3

Meanwhile, as I was returning to Australia, the United States government through the court system, had repealed the travel ban by the POTUS which seemed to be universally justified from a human rights perspective but not from a reciprocated perspective especially from a Israeli perspective.

From a counter terrorism and National Security Strategic and operational perspective, the propaganda against global terrorism has been given a most direct action response by a more assertive cut to the chase Presidential approach putting on notice multicultural and multiracial tolerances within many countries.

The inadvertent ban on Muslims, from the aforementioned listed seven countries, is premised, directly, upon the likely religiously related violence, which is stipulated, succinctly, within the POTUS executive order on the present seven nation list.

From an Australian perspective, the about face humanitarian approach by the Trump administration of the Australian processed refugee relocation bilateral agreement into the United States has hit a Trump wall roadblock. It may be considered a more draconian xenophobic approach which may be considered understandable from a country now intolerant of the persistent and consistent occurrences of terrorism related violence and incidence within the United States and affecting Americans citizens abroad.

The Trump administration has been broadly accepted by the populist mainstream with an overt 49% approval of the Trump banning of the seven nations list.

Australia may emulate such a restriction which may be considered a mutual response to such nations which imposes bans on certain nationals from entering their respective countries as well. In such a perspective reciprocity is considered reasonable.


Tim Tufuga

9th February, 2017.

Source:

1. The White House, The Briefing Room, Executive Order: INA, 8 U.S.C 1101 section 301 of title 301, US Code, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/27/executive-order-protecting-nation-foreign-terrorist-entry-united-states, 27th January, 2017.

2. Haynes, G, United Kingdom The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/north-america/united-states/articles/most-countries-on-trumps-list-also-ban-visitors-based-on-nationality/, 31st January, 2017.

3. Dr. Sweir, R., http://drrichswier.com/2017/01/30/sixteen-countries-ban-anyone-with-a-passport-with-an-israeli-stamp-or-visa-from-entering/

4. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/airlines-board-nationals-barred-muslim-ban-170204091834947.html